He has served as a consultant on Afghanistan to the United States Department of Defense and the United States Department of State. The chronology also provides a map that color coordinates these operations into specific campaigns. Photo: ALEXANDER ZEMLIANICHENKO/AFP via Getty Images, By Anthony H. Cordesman with the assistance of Grace Hwang, Defense Industry, Acquisition, and Innovation, Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation, Energy, Climate Change, and Environmental Impacts, Family Planning, Maternal and Child Health, and Immunizations, https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/200702_Burke_Chair_Russian_Chronology.pdf, The Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) High-Risk List, The Changing Military Dynamics of the MENA Region, The Biden Administration: Strategy and Reshaping the National Security Budget, The Biden Administration’s Security Challenges in the Gulf. He has served as a consultant on Afghanistan to the United States Department of Defense and the United States Department of State. Collectively, these are “gray zone” operations — conducted to alter the status quo, and employing coercion as necessary, but without resorting to war. It is to be noted that countries which have a brighter and more vivid hue of a campaign’s color signify a strong positive economic, military, or civil relationship with Russia. The categorization of these operations as Putin’s “new warfare” is partially correct, but perhaps better captured by hybrid rather than political or “new.” The problem with the hybrid threats definition is that it focuses on combinations of tactics associated with violence and warfare (except for criminal acts) but completely fails to capture other non-violent actions. The Hidden Benefits of Great-Power Conflict with China and Russia. This report is available on the CSIS website here. • Chinese hybrid warfare campaigns against major rivals normally start in spaces that are “empty,” peripheral, or perceived to be of limited importance by those rivals. Writing Off Afghanistan: Does Biden Have a Choice? Confusion and disorder ensue when weaponize… Anthony H. Cordesman with the assistance of Grace Hwang. It takes a different approach to defining such operations from those used in a number of official sources and other reports. No attempt is made to address every case. Definition. As a result, this chronology is designed to illustrate key patterns in Russian activity that compete directly and indirectly with the United States, and it serves as a starting point for a more comprehensive analysis. Contact H. Andrew Schwartz Chief Communications Officer Tel: 202.775.3242, Contact Caleb Diamond Media Relations Manager and Editorial Associate Tel: 202.775.3173. This analysis is entitled U.S. Competition with China and Russia: The Crisis-Driven Need to Change U.S. Strategy. It is available on the CSIS website here. [1] • This is bad history. A full analysis would involve a wide range of country experts and military experts. Many Russian low-level operations, cyber espionage, and political acts are only reported as serving commercial interests, reflecting local claims or interests, or supporting Russia’s broader security needs rather than as acts directed towards competition with the United States. Source Link. It also would require substantial intelligence analysis at classified levels to be truly comprehensive. These campaigns can represent either positive or negative gray zone operations. The chronology flags illustrative recent examples of Russian action in the following major areas of Russian competition: This report entitled, Chronology of Possible Russian Gray Area and Hybrid Warfare Operations, is available for download at https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/200702_Burke_Chair_Russian_Chronology.pdf. Contact H. Andrew Schwartz Chief Communications Officer Tel: 202.775.3242, Contact Caleb Diamond Media Relations Manager and Editorial Associate Tel: 202.775.3173. Russian Gray Area and Hybrid Warfare Operations By Anthony H. Cordesman With the assistance of Grace Hwang Working Draft: July 2, 2020 Please provide comments to acordesman@gmail.com Photo: ALEXANDER ZEMLIANICHENKO/AFP via Getty Images . • In the early phases of Chinese hybrid warfare campaigns, military involvement is usually distant and indirect. It is, however, being revised and expanded over time, and the authors will be grateful for any suggested revisions and additions. Many others are covert or involve indirect action, compete through the support of unofficial disinformation campaigns, use supposedly private business and NGO activities, or operate with the support of foreign state and non-state actors. Counter-Hybrid Warfare: Winning in the Gray Zone. Hybrid warfare is a military strategy which employs political warfare and blends conventional warfare, irregular warfare and cyberwarfare with other influencing methods, such as fake news, diplomacy, lawfare and foreign electoral intervention. ANALYSIS - Hybrid warfare and maritime militia in China. Photo: Facebook Photo: Facebook In 1999, Qiao Liang, then a senior air force colonel in the People’s Liberation Army, and Wang Xiangsui, another senior colonel, caused a tremendous uproar with the publication of Unrestricted Warfare: China’s Master Plan to Destroy America . There is no simple or reliable way to define Russian gray area or hybrid civil and military operations that affect U.S. strategic interests. That said, America lacks a formal doctrine for dealing with such conflicts or even an agreed-on doctrinal definition of what they are. It focuses on the need to address all of the key aspects of this competition, including Russia’s “gray area,” hybrid warfare, and multi-domain/joint combined-domain operations. The Joint Chiefs on the January 6, 2021 Riot in Washington, Trump Team Makes Last-Minute Moves to Box In Biden on Foreign Policy, The Biden Transition and Reshaping U.S. Strategy: Replacing “Burden Sharing” with Meaningful Force Planning. Please send these to Anthony H. Cordesman, Burke Chair in Strategy, at acordesman@gmail.com. It still, however, illustrates the broader patterns of Chinese activity in competing with the United States and serves as a starting point for a far more comprehensive analysis. In this paper, grey-zone is seen as being one component of hybrid warfare that includes conventional kinetic operations. By Anthony H. Cordesman with the assistance of Grace Hwang, Defense Industry, Acquisition, and Innovation, Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation, Energy, Climate Change, and Environmental Impacts, Family Planning, Maternal and Child Health, and Immunizations, The Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) High-Risk List, The Changing Military Dynamics of the MENA Region, The Biden Administration: Strategy and Reshaping the National Security Budget, The Biden Administration’s Security Challenges in the Gulf. At the same time, this is also a working document that can only cover a limited number of the events involved in any given area of competition and that only highlights part of the major areas of competition – or campaigns – where Russia now competes. Anthony Cordesman This chronology explores the full range of Russian competition with the United States. The United States is actively involved in two hybrid conflicts (ISIS in Syria and Iraq) and is supporting the Ukraine against hybrid threats from Russia. Hybrid warfare is roughly defined as ‘grey area’ warfare, which often exists just beneath the threshold of armed conflict. Anthony H. Cordesman with the assistance of Grace Hwang This chronology is a working document that explores the range of Chinese competition with the United States, and focuses on China’s “gray area,” hybrid warfare, and multi-domain operations. Chronology of Possible Russian Gray Area and Hybrid Warfare Operations By Anthony H. Cordesman with the assistance of Grace Hwang . It is also a working document that can only cover a limited number of events. The following map includes the Active Measures campaign, the Nuclear campaign, the Broader West/EU campaign, the U.S.-Russian Bering Strait Air and Maritime Campaign, the Southeastern Europe/Western Balkans campaign, the Western Border campaign, the Near Abroad campaign, the Syrian campaign, the Middle East campaign, the Sino-Relations campaign, the Africa campaign, the Latin America campaign, the Southeast Asia/India campaign, and the Arctic campaign. Anthony H. Cordesman holds the Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. It focuses on the need to address all of the key aspects of this competition, including Russia’s “gray area,” hybrid warfare, and multi-domain/joint combined-domain operations. It does, however, highlight the need to look beyond the military and war fighting aspects of U.S. and Chinese competition, and the boundaries of some current definitions of “gray area,” hybrid warfare, and multi-domain operations. Hybrid warfare — also known as grey zone conflict or low-intensity conflict — is a reality, and the U.S. military must be ready to confront and deter it, a senior intelligence officer said. Gary Anderson . 1. The following portions of this chronology address these issues by organizing the broad range of Russian gray zone and multi-domain civil and military operations into geographical regions where Russia is attempting to assert its influence and compete with the United States. It is a … It will be revised expanded overtime, and the authors will be grateful for any suggested revisions and additions. Finally, it is a supplement to a much broader analysis of U.S. strategic competition with both Russia and China that addresses the wider aspects of the changing military balance and the impact of broad areas of civil competition. As is discussed later in this chronology, the official and other open source reporting now available have serious limits. Russian hybrid warfare in Georgia: lessons learned Niklas Nilsson, Swedish Defence University Chair: Mikael Weissmann Wednesday, Nov 15 SESSION 5: Hybrid War and Threats: the legal grey area 0845-1045 KEY NOTE: Propaganda (as a component of hybrid warfare) and accountability Anthony Paphiti, Brig (rtd) UK Army. However, this is a fundamental misreading of the challenges the US actually faces in this multipolar security environment. The Joint Chiefs on the January 6, 2021 Riot in Washington, Trump Team Makes Last-Minute Moves to Box In Biden on Foreign Policy, The Biden Transition and Reshaping U.S. Strategy: Replacing “Burden Sharing” with Meaningful Force Planning. For the purposes of this analysis, countries that remain gray demonstrate either a neutral relationship with Russia or a relationship that does not share significant – whether it be positive or negative – statecraft with Russia. Sign up to receive The Evening, a daily brief on the news, events, and people shaping the world of international affairs. Many Chinese low-level operations, military claims, Crimea was annexed in November 2014. The lines between military, economic, diplomatic, intelligence and criminal means of aggression are becoming increasingly blurred. It takes a different approach to defining such operations from those used in a number of official sources and other reports, and its coverage is being steadily expanded in a number of areas. Linear conflicts are defined by a sequential progression of a planned strategy by opposing sides, whereas nonlinear conflict is the simultaneous deployment of multiple, complementary military and non-military warfare tactics. Author(s): Thiele, Ralph D.; Schmid, Johann ISPSW Strategy Series : Focus on Defense and International Security ; 663 Institut fur Strategie … Anthony H. Cordesman holds the Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. It is a working document and will be updated over time. As is discussed later in this chronology, the official and other open source reporting now available has serious limits. Author(s): Cordesman, Anthony H. Working Draft Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), 8 December 2020. Recent grey-zone activity in maritime Asia suggests an increase in hybrid warfare. This report entitled, Chronology of Possible Chinese Gray Area and Hybrid Warfare Operations, is available for download here. Chinese General Qiao Liang argues, ‘If we have to dance with the wolves, we should not dance to the rhythm of the United States’. Download the Report Anthony H. Cordesman with the assistance of Grace Hwang This chronology explores the full range of Russian competition with the United States. It stresses the need to give the civil side of competition the same priority as the military and war fighting aspects of U.S. and Russian competition – and to do so on a global basis that stresses the fact that the most successful form of competition may be in the lower-level gray areas where there is little or no direct use of force in combat. Hybrid warfare and maritime militia in China: Analysis. An online event, A View from the Foothills, with Paul Cole, who offers a view of the possible UK civil – military relations impacts of changing warfare with reference to the democratic oversight of the UK Armed Forces, whether sub-threshold warfare is truly a new phenomenon and what this may mean for Parliament, Government, populace and practitioners. future operations. However, that does not negate the fact that Russia may be attempting to further develop its relationship with these countries. Anthony H. Cordesman with the assistance of Grace Hwang. A nonlinear war is fought when a state employs conventional and irregular military forces in conjunction with psychological, economic, political, and cyber assaults. https://www.cgai.ca/grey_zone_conflict_implications_for_conflict_management This chronology explores the full range of Russian competition with the United States. It highlights the need to look beyond the boundaries of the current definitions of “gray area,” hybrid warfare, and multi-domain operations, as well as beyond the narrow focus on direct competition between the U.S. and Russia that excludes indirect competition involving other countries and non-state actors as well as Russia’s increasing cooperation with China. A Chinese anti-US propaganda poster from the Korean War era shows Chinese troops crushing US-led forces. This chronology is a rough working attempt to illustrate the full range and depth of Chinese competitive activities. Hybrid War is Bad History • The original hybrid work argues that the various “modes” of warfare, meaning conventional and unconventional methods, only merge within certain conflicts. As a result, this chronology is designed to illustrate key patterns in such Chinese activity that competes directly and indirectly with the United States, and it is a starting point for a more comprehensive analysis. I'm Going to recommend " Chronology of Possible Russian Gray Area and Hybrid Warfare Operations" by coredsman and hwang for further info on this topic. It's really hard to pin down an exact start, as there may be events not even listed in that paper, or events that Russia may or may not have had a hand in. China’s maritime militias are running a risk of blurring the line between fishing boats and naval forces. This chronology is a working document that explores the range of Chinese competition with the United States, and focuses on China’s “gray area,” hybrid warfare, and multi-domain operations. Please send these to Anthony H. Cordesman, Burke Chair in Strategy, at acordesman@gmail.com. Grey-zone activities are coercive statecraft actions short of war. By combining kinetic operations with subversive efforts, the aggressor intends to avoid attribution or retribution. Perhaps most notably, Chinese activities in the South China Sea and Iranian actions in the Arabian Gulf are starting to show characteristics of hybrid war. Pepe ESCOBAR. It is designed to erode public confidence in civil society and democratic foundations, primarily through cyber attacks on critical infrastructure, including energy, or targeted disinformation methods. Grey zone operations are inherently coercive and intended to achieve change, but they seek at the same time to limit an adversary’s ability to respond. Imposing Costs on Chinese Gray Zone Operations by Kaley Scholl Executive Summary The United States is preparing for great power competition against near-peer adversaries by preparing for a major war with China and Russia. An additional analysis of how U.S. competition with China interacts with U.S. strategic competition with Russia is provided in a separate Burke Chair analysis, entitled U.S. Competition with China and Russia: The Crisis-Driven Need to Change U.S. Strategy. Many Chinese low-level operations, territorial and maritime claims, as well as political acts are only reported as serving commercial interests, reflecting local claims or interests, or supporting China’s broader security needs rather than as acts directed towards competition with the United States. Many of the entries are uncertain or ambiguous, while many more have almost certainly been omitted or have never been reported. It focuses on the need to address all of the key aspects of this competition, including Russia’s “gray area,” hybrid warfare, and multi-domain/joint combined-domain operations. Chronology of Possible Chinese Gray Area and Hybrid Warfare Operations Anthony H. Cordesman with the assistance of Grace Hwang There is no simple or reliable way to define Chinese “gray area” or “hybrid” civil and military operations that affect U.S. strategic interests. Emerging and somewhat ambiguous contemporary threats, many of which fall short of the threshold historically consider “war,” have been referred to as hybrid warfare (United States and NATO), new generation warfare (Russia), unrestricted warfare (China), and gray-zone competition (various). Writing Off Afghanistan: Does Biden Have a Choice? Grey-zone campaigns are conducted by state actors but are likely to involve non-state entities and individuals. This is a worrisome trend, as it has the potential to negate or ameliorate high-end U.S. nautical capability. Chronology of Possible Russian Gray Area and Hybrid Warfare Operations (Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies; issued Dec 08, 2020) This chronology explores the full range of Russian competition with the United States. • The author holds up three examples where this supposedly does not happen: the Vietnam War, the Napoleonic Wars, the American Revolutionary War. Hybrid warfare may use elements from fo ur methods and categories of warfare; namel y, irregular warfare (such as terrorism a nd counter-. These include, but are not limited to, arms sales, access to natural resources, military alliances, and joint civil development projects. Sign up to receive The Evening, a daily brief on the news, events, and people shaping the world of international affairs. China’s maritime militias are running a risk of blurring the line between fishing boats and naval forces. Chronology of Russian Gray Zone and Hybrid Operations 07/02/20 2 Chronology of Possible Russian Gray Area and Hybrid Warfare Operations … China’s actions can be increasingly observed in a grey area situated between politics and violence (or war). Of the many unconventional challenges in the maritime realm, grey-zone operations are perhaps the most difficult. hybrid warfare remains subject to debate, inherent in the concept is the idea that covert and unconventional methods, which may include non-kinetic effects, are employed in addition to conventional military force. It takes a different approach to defining such operations from those used in a number […] China updates its ‘Art of (Hybrid) War’. China’s irregular sea force is one of the most important — yet most under-considered — factors affecting U.S. security interests in … Hybrid Warfare : Orchestrating the Technology Revolution. Chronology of Possible Russian Gray Area and Hybrid Warfare Operations.

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